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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -273 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -400.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

T.J. Hockenson has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

T.J. Hockenson has notched a colossal 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

T.J. Hockenson's 48.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 95th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on just 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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