Tevin Coleman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tevin Coleman

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tevin Coleman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+358/-708).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +371 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +358.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.00 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tevin Coleman to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (9.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.1% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.