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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to notch 6.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Terry McLaurin slots into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 57.3 figure since the start of last season.

With an excellent 4.4 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Terry McLaurin places as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's collection of CBs has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 50.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.

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