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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.8 per game) last year.

The model projects Terry McLaurin to total 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Terry McLaurin places in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 57.6 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Commanders as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been phenomenal last year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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