Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
This week, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to slot into the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.8 targets.
Terry McLaurin's 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 83rd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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