Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Terry McLaurin to notch 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among WRs.
With a fantastic 5.2 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin stands among the leading pass-catching WRs in the league.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
Terry McLaurin's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 58.6.

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