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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -14-point disadvantage, the Commanders are huge underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
  • The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • In this game, Terry McLaurin is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
  • Terry McLaurin's 56.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 81st percentile for WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see just 125.3 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
  • Terry McLaurin's 59.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a significant diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 67.4% mark.
  • The 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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