Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The projections expect Terry McLaurin to total 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Terry McLaurin's 62.4% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies an impressive reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 67.4% rate.
The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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