Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Terry McLaurin is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 88th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.1 per game) this year.
Terry McLaurin's 8.0 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 9.9 mark.
Terry McLaurin's 3.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a noteable reduction in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 5.8% rate.
The Cowboys defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 108.0) versus wide receivers this year.

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