Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Terry McLaurin has run a route on 92.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accrue 7.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Terry McLaurin has notched a monstrous 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.

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