Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more important option in his team's air attack this week (27.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (22.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Terry McLaurin has compiled far fewer air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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