Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (+104/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to garner 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game this week (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.6% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 70.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has posted quite a few less air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).

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