Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Terry McLaurin has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.2% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) versus wideouts this year (76.9%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 43.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 68.0.
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 9th-least TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.

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