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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-322).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +211.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Terry McLaurin has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

The Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) versus wideouts this year (72.1%).

The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.50 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Terry McLaurin has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).

Terry McLaurin's 45.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 68.0.

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Terry McLaurin's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.8% to 56.2%.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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