Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-231).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin's 61.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for wideouts.
Terry McLaurin's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 61.8% to 67.0%.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Terry McLaurin has notched far fewer air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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