Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+192/-283).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -266 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -283.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (23.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 61.8% to 66.4%.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has posted quite a few less air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 68.0.

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