Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-474).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -471 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -474.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (22.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Terry McLaurin has put up far fewer air yards this season (83.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 68.0.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.8%) vs. wideouts this year (57.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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