Terrace Marshall Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-149/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup quarterback Sam Darnold this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Terrace Marshall has gone out for fewer passes this season (90.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (53.1%).
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.