Terrace Marshall Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Terrace Marshall Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Terrace Marshall's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 14.6.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

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