Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-102/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 5th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.46 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

After accruing 52.0 air yards per game last season, Terrace Marshall Jr. has undergone a big decline this season, now boasting 45.0 per game.
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 44.2.
The Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s 4.8 adjusted yards per target this season marks a a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 9.8 mark.
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s 3.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a a substantial decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 4.6% figure.