Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Terrace Marshall Jr. has garnered a whopping 28.1% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Terrace Marshall Jr. to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.4% in games he has played).
Terrace Marshall Jr. has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 56.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 10th percentile among wide receivers