Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-818).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Terrace Marshall to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (15.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
Terrace Marshall has compiled significantly more air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (15.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
Terrace Marshall grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.