Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+368/-741).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -732 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -741.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Terrace Marshall has compiled far more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (15.0 per game).
Terrace Marshall's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 14.6.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Terrace Marshall to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (21.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.3% in games he has played).
Terrace Marshall's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.9% to 55.6%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.2%) to WRs this year (62.2%).