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Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.This week, Tee Higgins is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Tee Higgins has been more prominently utilized in his team's passing offense.The Bills pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.5%) versus WRs this year (76.5%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.Tee Higgins's play as a receiver has worsened this year, totaling a mere 3.2 adjusted catches compared to 5.3 last year.Tee Higgins's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 71.6% to 48.4%.When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
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