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Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-148/+116).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.Our trusted projections expect Tee Higgins to earn 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.Tee Higgins's 56.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 47.4.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.Tee Higgins's receiving skills have diminished this season, compiling just 3.8 adjusted receptions compared to 5.3 last season.Tee Higgins's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 71.6% to 58.4%.
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