Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
Tee Higgins's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 87th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.9%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (57.9%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.