Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to garner 6.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Tee Higgins has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 5.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Tee Higgins's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.3% to 76.0%.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tee Higgins's 47.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 60.1.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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