Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-183).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +149 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins has compiled a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wideouts.
Tee Higgins's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.2% to 75.6%.
Tee Higgins ranks in the 82nd percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tee Higgins's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 60.6.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).

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