Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-197).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tee Higgins has put up a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Tee Higgins's 56.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 88th percentile for wide receivers.
Tee Higgins's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 78.1%.
Tee Higgins ranks in the 84th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.35 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.