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Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Teddy Bridgewater TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (73.6%).

The New York Jets defense has given up the 9th-most passing TDs in football: 1.75 per game this year.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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