Teddy Bridgewater Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Teddy Bridgewater

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Teddy Bridgewater Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Teddy Bridgewater to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (10.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.0% in games he has played).
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets defense boasts the 8th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.09 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.