Teddy Bridgewater Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Teddy Bridgewater

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Teddy Bridgewater Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (73.6%).
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.