Taysom Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Taysom Hill

NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
Taysom Hill has averaged 4.8 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in football among QBs (83rd percentile).

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Taysom Hill's 28.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a significant decrease in his running talent over last season's 39.0 mark.
The Chicago Bears defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 3.44 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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