Taysom Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Taysom Hill

NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-most run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 44.3% run rate.
Taysom Hill has averaged 6.0 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, one of the largest rates in football among QBs (86th percentile).
Taysom Hill has generated 39.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among quarterbacks (86th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 78 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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