Taysom Hill Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-252).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +207 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Taysom Hill has rushed for 0.71 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (100th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the most touchdowns in the league (1.12 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.