Taysom Hill Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-286).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -186 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Taysom Hill has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among QBs (100th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most TDs in football (1.00 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year with their run defense.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have incorporated some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.