Taysom Hill Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Taysom Hill

NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+354/-694).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -634 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -694.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Taysom Hill has run for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among QBs (100th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.9% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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