Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+182/-244).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -233 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -244.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the league versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.3%).

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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