Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+191/-246).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +191.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (77.0%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 33.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers defense has given up the 2nd-least passing TDs in football: 0.67 per game this year.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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