Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks profile as the 10th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Washington Commanders offensive line has given their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.0 passes this week, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.

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