Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 54.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 31.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.