Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-300/+215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -270 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -300.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Taylor Heinicke's passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.0% to 62.1%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest clip in football versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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