Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (13.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.0% in games he has played).
Taylor Heinicke has grinded out 19.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (78th percentile).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Taylor Heinicke's rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a measly 4.12 yards-per-carry vs a 6.28 figure last year.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.17 yards-per-carry.

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