Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (9.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
The New York Giants defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.12 yards-per-carry.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (11.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).
Taylor Heinicke's rushing efficiency has diminished this season, averaging a measly 3.75 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.28 rate last season.
The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.