Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (10.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in the league (179 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Taylor Heinicke's rushing effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a mere 4.48 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.28 mark last year.

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