Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (10.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).
Taylor Heinicke has picked up 19.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (76th percentile).
Taylor Heinicke has been among the top quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to total 2.7 rush attempts in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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