Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-995).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -919 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -995.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.4% red zone run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (12.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in the NFL (1.36 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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