Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 207.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 219.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 207.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
This year, the poor Vikings defense has been torched for a colossal 76.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Taylor Heinicke is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.9.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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