Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 183.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 199.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 183.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders offensive line has given their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Taylor Heinicke has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a 63.1% Completion%, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.

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