Taylor Heinicke Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Pass Attempts

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.0 passes this week, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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